SOF · RMUVECTOR · 2026-10-21
Analytical Brief — 21.10.2026 02:12
The world is entering a phase of major bargaining over Ukraine. Witkoff and Kushner are with Putin in Saint Petersburg; Trump is pressuring for a deal by December and inviting Putin to the G20 on December 14–15. Meanwhile, Russia is striking Ukraine's energy system: hits on substations in Kyiv, Lviv, and Kharkiv, power outage schedules, and an expanded emergency regime for heating, water, and communications. Zelensky acknowledges losses but states that the war is not lost. France: mass riots, curfews in certain departments, Macron blames external factors. Markets: WTI $101.91, 10-year US Treasury yields 5.15%, 10Y–2Y spread 0.33 pp — recession is delayed, but inflation remains high. Russia is selling gold reserves at record rates — a sign of economic stress. Events are forming a picture of a reshuffle: Ukraine may become a bargaining chip in restoring the US-Russia balance of power.
The world is entering a phase of major bargaining over Ukraine. Witkoff and Kushner are with Putin in Saint Petersburg; Trump is pressuring for a deal by December and inviting Putin to the G20 on December 14–15. Meanwhile, Russia is striking Ukraine's energy system: hits on substations in Kyiv, Lviv, and Kharkiv, power outage schedules, and an expanded emergency regime for heating, water, and communications. Zelensky acknowledges losses but states that the war is not lost. France: mass riots, curfews in certain departments, Macron blames external factors. Markets: WTI $101.91, 10-year US Treasury yields 5.15%, 10Y–2Y spread 0.33 pp — recession is delayed, but inflation remains high. Russia is selling gold reserves at record rates — a sign of economic stress. Events are forming a picture of a reshuffle: Ukraine may become a bargaining chip in restoring the US-Russia balance of power.
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